How Facebook could be saving us all from AI apocalypse

There were a few headline-grabbers from Facebook’s f8 conference last week.

Facebook Spaces VR social network was a big one, for example (and one I’ll talk about in a later blog).

But regular readers will probably guess the one that’s got me most excited – and that’s the mind-reading brain-to-computer interface.

Yup, that’s right. Facebook unveiled a system they are working on that will allow computers to read our thoughts and type out text from them.

Don’t get too excited – the system is only currently operating at eight words-per-minute (wpm). And that’s not much.

But they have over 60 scientists working on the project and are aiming to get that up to 100 wpm. That is fast. 

To give you an idea, journalists working in courtrooms use shorthand at somewhere between 100-120 wpm.

That means we’ll be able to type about as fast as we can talk… using just our minds.

But what does this have to do with the AI apocalypse?

Good question. The answer is simple – that is that we will find it much easier to assimilate better and better AI with this new advancement.

I’ve written before about how our human-to-computer bandwidth is a problem (as outlined by Elon Musk, who is also working on something similar to this. Obviously).

This technology would give us a much better chance of keeping up with the rate of change – and will reduce the chances of AI simply running away from us lower beings.

And it’s not just the 100 wpm typing that’s got me excited.

Because the one near-guarantee with tech advancement is that if something works, it’s likely to get better as more people invest in it.

So our ink to the machine would only be likely to improve over time – allowing us to embed ourselves further and further into our digital selves.

It’s important to remember – we are already cyborgs. Our phones have become real extensions of ourselves. Improving that connection will help us to remain relevant in an increasingly digitised world (and universe).

This might sound like hyperbole – but, as with all these things, just take a look at what has already been accomplished in the last 20 years. The world looks entirely different. That change is going to accelerate. So get ready to plug in!

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How will Facebook defeat Fake News?

Fake news has come to take on a few different meanings in the media, so it might be helpful to outline what it is before we talk about whether Facebook can beat it:

  • Fake news is entirely fictional, fabricated stories, made with the aim of generating clicks and, therefore, advertising revenue
  • The authors of this nonsense use particularly sensational headlines to attract viewers and shares to boost their traffic
  • They also employ ‘bots’ – or fictional Facebook profiles – to engage with their fake content to boost a story’s weight in the algorithm and therefore increase traffic
  • Stories can then take on a life of their own because of the echo-chamber effect Facebook’s algorithm has on the things we all see on there
  • Fake news is NOT when CNN reports something Donald Trump doesn’t like
  • Fake news is NOT the BBC
  • Fake news is most certainly NOT schmocial.org – here you get nothing but the truth and Rick and Morty gifs. Very little else.

It’s also worth noting that fake news is not helpful for Facebook’s business model. Facebook is so successful because it’s a network based on real life. It requires real names and real engagement. If people stop trusting what they see in news feed, the whole system could start to break down.

So how does Facebook plan to fight it?

Well in a blog post, the network outlined three areas:

  • Disrupting economic incentives
  • Building new products
  • Helping people make more informed decisions

To me, the second of these is the most compelling, because it’s the area that requires the innovation and the fundamental changes to the way Facebook operates.

It’s difficult to see how disrupting economic incentives will achieve much, as the fake news ad revenue is likely coming through different streams. It’s true that revenue share is available to publishers through the Facebook audience network – but this is by no means the only option for publishers looking to make click money.

Then helping people make informed decisions is a laudable aim – and involves some interesting projects, like the Facebook Journalism Project and the News Integrity Initiative. But these are broader, longer-term changes.

I will also say here that it’s encouraging to see Facebook taking news organisations seriously. For a while it looked like they’d be treated simply as more paying advertisers and would thus be strangled off of all news feed traffic.

So what new products are they building?

One of the things they are doing is making reporting of dodgy news easier.

This might sound like an easy solution. People report fake news, Facebook removes it. But it’s not that simple.

The main problem with fake news is that people don’t know it’s fake.

For example: a really fake story might have a hundred shares from credulous readers, and four or five reports from angry skeptics.

Then, a true story might have hundreds of shares simply from interested people, and four or five reports from those who, say, don’t like it politically.

How to tell the difference? This is what Facebook will be struggling with.

It’s a numbers game

Another issue Facebook is dealing with is scale.

In most programming (and I should emphasise here that I’m a basic-level programmer, certainly not an expert) it’s relatively easy to perform operations on known numbers – it’s the unknowns that become tricky.

So, one, two, three, or a hundred fake news stories are easy enough to take down one by one. But what about n fake news stories? This is what you are dealing with when they are constantly being uploaded all day every day.

And it requires systems that can understand an incredibly complex range of signals.

One of the signals they are looking at, for example, is a person’s likelihood to share a story after reading it. They reason that fake news is more likely to reveal itself post click-through, so the majority of its shares would come from people who haven’t actually read the story.

Take it from someone who has worked social at two major newspapers: sharing without actually reading an article happens all the time.

So Facebook will now be grappling with that, too. But it’s a task I expect them to do well. After all, writing smart, complex algorithms is what has got them to where they are today. They’ll have some of the best minds on the planet taking on the job.

Working with partners

Working with major news organisations to fact-check stories is another method they are using – and is similar to what Google is doing with its own fact-check roll out.

These are both great ideas and should do a lot of good. My only concern is that part of the problem is that people are coming to trust fake news sites MORE than the mainstream media. So what if they simply don’t care what Associated Press says?

What about the bots?

The bots – or fake profiles sharing fake news – are under constant scrutiny. Facebook looks at the names, the profile pictures, and a huge variety of ways in which they are related to real life profiles to determine which profiles are real and which ones aren’t.

But it’s an arms race. And, as I said above, it’s also a question of scale. It probably isn’t that difficult to find out whether one individual profile is fake. But determining whether an unknown number are fake when compared to an unknown number of real ones – by using a huge number of different variables – is another question entirely.

Building systems that recognise real from fake is tough. And it’s sometimes easy to forget that social media is a brave new world. Many of the systems they use will have to have been invented first.

One thing is for sure – Facebook has a huge investment in trust. And while the search for engagement sometimes pushes towards maximum engagement at the expense of all else – they’ll know that becoming known simply as bullshit merchants is very bad for business. So Zuckerberg and co be working incredibly hard to be as reliable and truthful as possible. I expect them to come out on top.

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Here.

On Elon Musk, Cyborgs, and the Human Bandwidth Problem

Elon Musk thinks we are all already cyborgs. I agree.

And it’s not because I’m a massive Elon Musk fanboy.

OK, it’s not just because I’m a massive Elon Musk fanboy (if you’re reading this, Elon, ilu ♥).

It’s because it’s true – we have all now come to rely heavily on our new tertiary selves – or, our digital brains. Our social media and Google-powered memories and instant communication and GPS and fitness trackers and everything else.

Here’s the man himself talking about it:

Interesting, right?!

Elon focusses mainly on the output problem – essentially that we are just using our meat-stick fingers to type things out very slowly in the digital world.

His idea is to use a neural lace to hardwire our brains into the web to speed things up. This is something that people like Ray Kurzweil have been talking about for some time now.

I can’t wait! Plug me in.

But I think his ideas also raise another couple of interesting points relevant to social media:

  1. What role does social play in the digital self?

If Google is basically our digital memory – what does that make Facebook?

I think it’s our ego. It’s the part of ourselves that’s constantly screaming at the world about the things it likes, the things it hates, the things it wants to change, and the things it just wishes would just please stay the same ..PLEASE GOD STAY THE SAME PLEASE.

At the moment it feels like a hyper-self. Everything we believe to be true about our character, exaggerated and amplified, shouting relentlessly into the void.

It’s true that we probably communicate more, in terms of sheer volume, with our friends and colleagues on messaging apps than we do in any other way – but I still reckon we only really use the full range of our expressive communication when we’re talking to people in person.

So in many ways social is overtaking traditional person-to-person communication – but I still think there are some things it can’t do.

2. What about input?

Musk says input isn’t such an issue because we can take in lots of data through our eyes (or high-bandwidth visual interface, natch).

This has got me round to thinking about content in terms of data – ie. how much information a video can upload to the viewer’s brain in a given amount of time.

This may be the reason Facebook is now shifting back towards having sound on its videos (rather than mute by default) – because with audio and images, you can push more information per second than with visuals alone.

Which brings me neatly to speed reading. Cool films like this one:

Honda ~ ‘Keep Up’ from ManvsMachine on Vimeo.

I think stuff like this is great because it is offering you more information per second than a film with normal left-to-right text would. And certainly more than one with no text.

This is, I think, part of the reason emojis have become so popular: they allow us to communicate quite complex facial expressions in a single character. This is actually conveying a great deal of information – far more than can be expressed succinctly with words.

This trend is bound to continue as we get better at taking all the information in. Most videos on social now have some sort of text overlaid.

And every time we watch them we are practising absorbing more information, faster.

Then as we become better at taking it all in, we get increasingly bored with films that don’t satiate our voracious informational appetite. Our attention span becomes shorter.

Want proof? Simply watch a few old movies. They may have other qualities you appreciate – and you might personally enjoy the time taken over setting the scene.

But the trend between them and what we have now is clear – everything is speeding up and becoming more info-heavy.

Here are a few other examples…

LEFFE

We tried to play on this information overload with films for Leffe, whose creative platform was “Rediscover Time”.

Leffe SLOW TIME: Pete Lawrence 15 second social edit from The Academy on Vimeo.

The whole idea was that Leffe is a beer that should be savoured by slowing down and taking time to appreciate the finer things in life. And we had made a ten-minute documentary film about the lives and work of people who use time in their work (an astrophotographer being one of them).

Ten minutes is too long for a social film, and the premise was somewhat at odds with the points I’ve outlined above. So we tried to come up with a creative solution that was direct, and challenging to the viewer (although hopefully not too challenging). It worked – the video wound up having one of the highest view-through rates they’d ever seen. We also saw a high rate of people clicking through to watch the full documentary.

LEAP SECOND

Before I joined, the clever folks at my current agency created this very short film to celebrate the leap second that occurred in 2016.

I think it’s beautiful – but I also find it interesting how it is communicating far more information than it’s possible for a human to take in in just a second. It’s taking the idea of high human-bandwidth video to its natural conclusion (i.e. the eventual failure of our own processing power).

NIKE

Another great example of speed reading being used to satirise digital culture – in an incredibly digitally-native format. It’s probably ironic or something.

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7 impossible requests anyone who works in social media will know all about

Working in social is fun. You’re at the bleeding edge of the current global conversation, which can be exhilarating.

And one of the best parts of the job is talking to and advising people from different areas of business on what they can and can’t do.

These conversations can also become tricky when impossible requests come in.

I never say never, and will always try to find solutions for people’s requests, but I thought I’d share some of the most common ones. It’s just for a laugh – but I reckon most people reading this will have made or received at least one of these at some point…

1.”Can you do a viral?”

spock-social-media

This request probably had its heyday around about 2014 and is without doubt my favourite – because it’s almost axiomatic that you can’t.

The whole point of viral content is it just takes off unpredictably when that perfect combination of elements suddenly falls into place. Creativity, influence, news, timing.

Obviously I’ve tried, with varying degrees of success, but the idea that anyone who knows anything about social media can just conjure up a viral on the spot is, sadly, wide of the mark.

2. “What do women/men aged between x and y like?”

hillary-clinton-schmocial

This could apply to any different demographic, but contains the one running problem whichever – ie. they like LOADS of different stuff.

Hell, guess what? Some of them aren’t even on social media! (I know right).

And all of that is before you’ve even come on to analytics. And obviously there aren’t any analytics that have ALL THE DATA IN THE WORLD.

I mean maybe that’s what god is? Just shitloads of data on everything?

Either way. If that is what god is, she doesn’t exist yet. So we can’t run that request either. Sorry guys.

3. “How do I make Lady Gaga/Ricky Gervais/Somebody Famous/This Random Journalist follow my account on Twitter?”

lady-gaga-schmocial

I mean.

You could make friends with them and ask? But I won’t be able to do that for you.

4. “Can you get these Instagrammers to do this stuff for no money?”

instagram-schmocial

If I give you this duster, will you clean my house for no money?

How about if I share one of your Facebook posts? No? Thought not.

5. “How much money do I need to spend on this Facebook advert?”

money-schmocial

The problem is that you can literally spend any amount of money on Facebook ads. Even if it was so much money that you physically couldn’t enter the numbers in the box, I’ll bet you could phone up and pay some other way.

This one is a legit question though – the best way to handle it is to look at estimated audience size and give a range of options. But there’s definitely no one magic number.

6. “Can you just run some stats about x?”

statistics-shark-schmocial

Obviously I know exactly what stats you want. Shall I just check how many times they’ve mentioned the word ‘chicken’ on Google Plus? Would that be useful? If not I’m going to need more info pls.

7. “We want to give this cat/dog/cartoon bear an Instagram account. It’ll be hilarious!”

It will not be hilarious.

Don’t. Do. It.

dog-instagram-schmocial

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What Facebook’s video changes mean for you

TL;DR

  • Shorter videos were doing better than longer ones
  • Algorithm changes mean longer videos now have a better chance

Was anyone else starting to notice Facebook videos were all getting a bit samey?

For a long time now, best practice for creating Facebook videos has been to make them work with no sound, and at a length of about 15 seconds.

The reason for this was that Facebook was measuring the success of a video by ‘percent completion’ – or the proportion of it being watched by most people.

A video watched to 75% of its length was deemed ‘better’ than one watched to 25%. And the better ones were, of course, being shown in news feed more often.

This sounds like a reasonable thing to do, until you realise that the most successful videos were almost always the shortest ones. Because it’s much easier to get your audience to watch most of a 15 second video than most of a 15 minute video. It’s a simple question of time. Facebook has a very transient audience who tend to flick through content quickly.

Thirty seconds is a long time on Facebook newsfeed. Fifteen minutes is a lifetime.

But now that’s all changed

Facebook now say in a blog post that ‘percent completion’ will be more important on longer videos. So now if your audience watches 75% of that 15 minute video, it will be deemed better than watching 75% of the 15 second one.

Here’s what they said:

“…we know that completing a longer video is a bigger commitment than completing a shorter one.

“As we continue to understand how our community consumes video, we’ve realized that we should therefore weight percent completion more heavily the longer a video is, to avoid penalizing longer videos.”

Anything else?

 

You may also have noticed, as I have, that Facebook is making the sound on/off button more prominent on videos.

facebook-sound-button

Look at that big button

It’s been assumed for a while now that nobody will ever listen to sound on video content – this is obviously their play to try to change that.

It would make sense – sound adds a whole different dimension to videos, and bringing it back would certainly make Facebook vids more interesting.

So what does that mean?

It means longer videos will start to perform well on Facebook.

And I think these changes are a good thing. The whole 15-seconds-no-sound paradigm was definitely starting to get tired.

Whilst it certainly presented an interesting creative challenge for a while, newsfeed video content felt like it was getting dumber.

Allowing content creators to make longer videos – which is essentially what these changes are doing – means our newsfeeds are likely to be filled with more interesting and in-depth stuff.

And those of us that actually make the videos have more time to play with. I can certainly think of a few colleagues who will be delighted.

But…

Don’t go thinking that just because videos can be longer that they should be. Videos will still need to work hard to hold people’s attention – which will arguably be harder the longer it goes on for.

It’s no good making a great 10 minute long video if the first 5 seconds are slow or dull – people will still drop off before they get to the good stuff and the content will still perform badly.

Videos on Facebook have a 1.5 second audition time – and that certainly won’t be changing.

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A very real reason why the Facebook suicide button is a good idea

It’s been reported that Facebook is to roll out expanded suicide prevention tools after successful trials in Australia and the USA.

This means we’ll all soon have the option to report friends we’re worried about. The app, which was developed with Samaritans, will then send that friend a message with support options, like this:

FB-suicide-button

Feedback seems to have been generally positive from what I’ve seen. But it does still raise legitimate concerns about just how far we’re willing to let social networks into our lives.

How will the network be able to use this data, for example? We already know Facebook records everything you ever do, and the vast majority of this data is used in ad targeting. Will we get to a stage where a person’s mental health is fed into the picture Facebook builds of them for advertisers?

I think it’s unlikely. I honestly don’t think Facebook has any ulterior motive in developing this tool. But what if there was a data leak? If you were suicidal, imagine the kind of damage it could cause your mental state knowing that the whole world knew about it.

So there are legitimate concerns. But none, as far as I can tell, are really outside of the broader issues about Facebook becoming more and more integrated in our lives and storing huge amounts of data on each of us.

And anyway, it could actually save lives. And I knew one specific person it genuinely could’ve helped.

In a past life I used to play drums in a rock band. One of the quirkier things about being in a group with a presence on social media is that you start to pick up fans from all over the world. One of ours was a guy we’ll call John (not his real name) from San Francisco.

John found us on MySpace and seemed like a nice guy. He’d regularly get in touch about new demos we’d posted, and all of us would chat to him about our music on Facebook.

He started adding our friends, and other UK-based fans, and catching up with them to ask about how our gigs had been. Then conversations began to get more in-depth. He’d tell us more personal details about his life, and talk to us all as if we’d been lifelong friends.

We actually used to wonder whether it was a wind up. We thought it could’ve been one of our friends pretending to be an international super fan. But it became clear he was just a pretty lonely guy, reaching out for company.

Anyway, John was clearly in a bad way. He’d post strange things, and we started to receive messages from people he knew who were worried about him, asking us about what he’d said to us.

The whole thing was surreal. We liked John, and worried about him, but were completely powerless to do anything to help. We were a bunch of guys from London who didn’t spend all that much time on Facebook anyway, and he was a person we’d never even met who lived in San Francisco. The connection was tenuous to say the least.

Then, tragically, John killed himself.

At least, we think he did. The first any of us in London knew about this troubled man we barely knew taking his own life were the messages of condolence that started to appear on his wall. We didn’t know how to react, but I’m certain we all felt guilty for not doing more to help.

So, yeah,  for my money, the button is definitely a good idea. We certainly would have reported some of the updates and messages John posted, and he might still have been around today.